Source: Network
Recently, the volatility of the domestic commodity futures market has risen. In November, the prices of industrial products represented by crude oil and blacks have fallen sharply, and some varieties have fallen by more than 20%. Among them, the pulp futures listed soon became a short-selling "good heart." The A-share downstream papermaking enterprises were supported by the downward cost and became the beneficiary of the decline in pulp prices.
Pulp futures become a short favorite
China Power Investment Corporation's first futures analyst Song Dongjie told China Securities Journal that the pulp futures as a new listing, the price on the day of listing on November 27 fell by 10%, the second trading day exceeded 1 million hands. Become a veritable star breed.
Yesterday, the main contract of pulp futures once fell below the 5000 mark, and the price weakness is evident. What is the reason for the continuous decline in pulp futures?
Song Dongjie analyzed the China Securities Journal reporter, and the pulp futures fell this time, mainly in the fundamental short-selling logic of trading paper market.
First, supply capacity continues to be released. Although the pulp supply at home and abroad is in a low-speed growth cycle, the global wood pulp production capacity is mainly expanded in Latin America, with broadleaf-based, and bleached softwood pulp has no significant growth in production capacity. At the same time, in order to enrich the company's own industrial chain, the international pulp and paper giants continue to purchase shares in the pulp mill to further increase the upstream concentration, and the supply of commercial bleached softwood pulp is becoming increasingly tense. The supply of our pulp is mainly imported, mainly broadleaf pulp. In addition, waste paper, as an important supplement to papermaking materials, has gradually expanded in recent years.
Secondly, on the demand side, the demand for the “Double 11†peak season has passed, and demand has entered the off-season. Due to serious pollution and overcapacity problems, the paper industry has become the focus of the supply-side reform to the capacity industry. In 2011, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Forestry Bureau jointly issued the “12th Five-Year Plan for the Paper Industry Exhibition†to promote the supply side reform of the industry. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the industry eliminated a total of 38.72 million tons of backward production capacity; the “13th Five-Year Plan†paper industry will continue to phase out 8 million tons of backward production capacity, and the elimination of backward production capacity will lead to a reduction in the demand for upstream pulp by papermaking enterprises. The most demanding downstream of pulp is packaging paper, and the demand for packaging paper is very seasonal. In the second half of the year, as the peak season of demand, “Double 11†has just passed, and the delivery contract of the main pulp contract of 1906 is just in seasonality in June. The demand is in the off-season, so the current price continues to be discounted to the spot, which has reached 1000 points, which has basically reflected the expectation that the spot price will weaken in the future.
Again, inventory is at a historically high level, suppressing spot prices. The entire paper industry chain has been under greater pressure this year. The output of mechanical paper and paperboard in China is significantly lower this year than in the past two years. As of October, the production of mechanical paper and paperboard in China was 97.353 million tons, a decrease of 9.5% compared with last year. Among them, cultural paper and news paper fell sharply. Affected by the decline in production in the industrial chain, this year's demand for pulp fell, leading to the accumulation of pulp stock. Domestically, at present, the three major pulp stocks in Baoding, Qingdao and Changshu are in very high positions. The total stocks of the three places totaled 1.41 million tons, up from 595,000 tons last year, an increase of 815,000 tons. 137%.
It is worth mentioning that during the period of falling pulp prices, some of the downstream paper companies in the A-share market have become beneficiaries.
Taking Zhongshun Jierou as an example, the company's domestic paper industry first echelon company, the company's revenue in 2015-2017 increased from 2.959 billion to 4.638 billion, the average annual compound growth rate was 25.20%, and the net profit from the mother was 88 million. It has grown to 349 million, with an average annual compound growth rate of 99.15%, 2018Q1-Q3, the company's revenue of 4.081 billion, an increase of 21.74%, net profit of 313 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.85%; the company's performance growth rate is in the leading position in the industry, and Non-paper products contribute to higher growth rates.
According to the research and analysis of Huachuang Securities' light industry manufacturing industry, from the perspective of cost, under the influence of high inventory and pulp futures, the recent loosening of pulp prices, the company is expected to reduce pressure on the cost side, and the fourth quarter results are expected to maintain a good trend; The product price increase has effectively boosted the upward pressure on the revenue side, and the gross profit margin has no significant risk of decline. In addition, the gross profit margin is expected to increase further with the increase in the proportion of high-end products. From the cost side analysis, the industry competition slowed down, the company launched a new round of capacity expansion, the sales expense rate has now fallen, the period expense rate will continue to decline, and the 2018 performance growth is expected to continue.
"Overall, the company's performance growth rate ranks first in the industry, and the annual performance growth is highly certain." The agency believes.
Whether the premium is more than a thousand points is a sign of turning point
The current pulp futures contract 1906 has posted more than 1000 points in the spot, and deep discounts are often an important indicator of market reversal. For pulp futures, does this mean that prices enter the turning point?
“From a global perspective, the stock of wood pulp is also accumulating. The accumulated stocks of wood pulp in several major ports around the world have reached a new high since 2013. Demand is not strong, stocks are high, market confidence is shrinking, and the industry chain is not smooth. Therefore, the pressure on the pulp market is still relatively large." Song Dongjie said.
Song Dongjie believes that in the continuous release of production capacity, the demand season has passed the off-season, inventory is in the historical high background, pulp futures continue to fall, has now fallen below the 5000 mark, the basis is more than 1000 / ton, the price is short-term super Falling state, the market outlook with the adjustment of spot prices, futures are expected to rebound weakly to repair the basis.
According to the China Securities Journal reporter, in the spot market, at present, Qingdao Yinxing brand wood pulp offer 6100 / ton; Northeast Wuzheng offer 6100 / ton; South China moon brand offer 6300 / ton.
Ruida Futures analyzed that the current market weakness in the pulp period is difficult to change. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the amount of wood pulp, waste paper pulp and papermaking increased by about 10%, and the environmental protection efforts tightened, leading to a large-scale closure or reduction of the downstream paper industry. Production, operating rate remained low, pulp and pulp market production and sales are not good, port inventory continued to increase to maintain historical highs, in the face of the downward pressure on the macro economy, the market's pulp showed a volatile trend.
“Technology, the pulp 1906 futures opened higher in early trading, then the diving fell, the price fell below the 5000 mark, and the short-term pulp space continued to fluctuate weakly. In operation, the basis of the pulp period continued to expand, and the short-term fluctuations were more uncertain. It is appropriate to wait and see." The agency suggested.
Responsible editor: Ge
This article is posted on the website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.
Article source address: http://
Semi Permanent Hair Color contains Hair Color Mask Cream,Oxidant Cream For Hair Dye,Semi Hair Color Depositing Conditioner
Semi Permanent Hair Color Cream,Hair Color Mask Cream,Oxidant Cream For Hair Dye,Semi Hair Color Depositing Conditioner
DELIN HAIR COSMETICS , https://www.skinbeautymaskfactory.com