3D printing is really the future of manufacturing, but please add one after the future. Maker movement is a niche game and a renaissance of hobby.
Anderson has left the editor-in-chief of "Wired" to join the 3D printing business. He believes that 3D printing is a bigger thing than the Internet. In his new book "Maker" he imagines the future of the new industrial revolution: using open source design and 3D printing technology to achieve national creation, the hardware will be manufactured in smaller batches on smaller production lines. The deep integration of the Internet and the manufacturing industry has lowered the barriers to entry for physical product entrepreneurship, and on-demand production has become the norm, which will impact and reorganize the global manufacturing industry chain and value chain. The article in The Economist pointed out that the significance of 3D printing technology for manufacturing is subversive: just like the steam engine in 1750, the printing technology in 1450, the transistor in 1950, 3D printing will also be in the long time Change the world.
The long tail theory is a perfect match between mass goods and niche demand, and the theory advocated by Maker is to advance the long tail from the consumer side to the production side. But the future may not be as beautiful as depicted in the book and the media, and creation for all will face many difficulties. And from the past few years, it has been overwhelming, but until 14 years ago, no star company has been continuously tracked by people or even the media, and 3D printing has not entered the life of ordinary people. From the point of view of 3D printing, it is just a lack of topics to fill False hotspots speculated by the media in the forum. Last summer, even Guo Taiming, the big man in manufacturing and chairman of Hon Hai, gave a negative view on 3D printing. He said: "If (3D printing) is really (useful), then I write the word" Guo "upside down. "This article attempts to analyze the challenges faced by 3D printing technology from three dimensions: consumer, production and manufacturing.
The consumer side: Concentration of consumption leads to a long tail with little commercial value
The long tail theory refers to the future of business and culture not in the head of the traditional demand curve that represents "best-selling commodities"; but the one that represents "unpopular goods" that is often forgotten.
Make it, spread it, help me find it, these are the three powers of the long tail. At the time, Amazon was regarded as a successful practice of the long-tail theory: in the cultural / digital consumer fields such as books, videos, and audio, all products can be obtained by “endless shelvesâ€, and consumers ’endless choice needs can be met Tail products can often accumulate a large enough amount to match mainstream popular products.
There are three prerequisites for the existence of Nagao: the sale of hot products to a narrow crowd / subdivision / niche market, the development of the economy to the stage of affluence, and the integration of many small markets into one large market. But whether in online stores or physical stores, consumption is the same for most of the time, and every seller wants to make an explosion; there is no "endless shelf" in the physical world; after the formation of the long tail, it will also face choices Too many problems, in order to pick out the right product for each consumer in the fish-and-dragon market, a powerful filter is also needed.
The biggest challenge that Nagao faces is: Concentration of consumption, resulting in a small business value of Nagao's tail. Nagao does not help merchants make a good profit, because the tail may be extremely flat, filled with various popular products, and these products are only occasional pastimes by consumers. In fact, consumers are always passionate about popular products. Increased unabated. The smartphone industry is the best example. Apple gained a 73% profit in the mobile phone industry with just 8.8% market share in May. During the same period, Samsung grabbed a 26% industry profit. The remaining Nokia, BlackBerry, HTC Of mobile phone manufacturers split the remaining 1% of the industry's profits. There used to be a lot of long tail e-commerce, but now they don't believe in long tail anymore.
Production side: C2B cannot be scaled and has no profit model
â‘ Sellers lack motivation to participate. The advantages of mass production are repetitive manufacturing and standardization, while 3D printing is conducive to personalization and customization. However, C2B is a reverse business model oriented by aggregating consumer demand. It is faced with uncontrollable user demand. If large-scale demand is long overdue, it is easy to die because of capital rupture. Moreover, it is quite difficult for ordinary enterprises and individuals to organize and initiate demand aggregation on the C side. In the article "Vertical E-Commerce Says NO to C2B", Tiger Sniff pointed out its three prerequisites: â‘ profit support, depending on the industry; â‘¡ the core is to control the supply chain; â‘¢ customer acquisition costs must be low, because C2B Will harm the interests of the seller.
â‘¡C2B is a big platform game. Anderson believes that customization and small batches are the future of manufacturing, which coincides with Ma Yun's concept of "small and beautiful" enterprises on the platform. In 2008, Ma Yun has already proposed personalized customization, and the subtext is small batches and many varieties. The most active e-commerce company that advocates the concept of C2B pre-sale in China is also Ali: Tmall has always wanted to take the pre-sale model to sell fixed production and zero inventory, first aggregate demand and then conduct efficient supply chain organization; the latest example is Taobao just past During the Double Twelve C2B trial, as of December 11, 14.03 million buyers sent preferential signals to 1.1 million sellers, and 10.12 million babies responded. On the day of Double Twelve, 150 million buyers came to Taobao, but Ali did not disclose the final according to convention Turnover. Before the engagement, the public relations draft flew to the cold treatment now, which can basically be regarded as a bluff C2B: the result is too scattered, the marketing points are insufficient, and it has not really touched consumers on a large scale.
One characteristic of the industrial society is economies of scale, but C2B is taking the path of anti-scale economy, and only a big platform like Taobao Tmall with huge users and resources can play. Ordinary Chinese manufacturing can hardly keep up, and the business imagination that can keep up is limited. If you are willing to be a small seller, you may have a chance, but who is willing?
â‘¢ Consumers do not buy it. Most of the time consumption is impulsive, 3D printing is slow, manufacturing still needs modeling, design is too far away from production, this long production cycle will leave a large group of consumers; even if it can respond quickly, compared with similar products The high cost and rough accuracy have to leave off a group of consumers; another problem is that consumers may not know what they really want, how to take the initiative to consult with you?
Manufacturing: There are still many problems to be solved in the popularization of 3D printers
â‘ The biggest problem is skills. Anderson believes that the biggest problem in the development process of the maker movement is skills, from the skills of a few people to the skills that most people can master. Modeling software needs to be learned, and building models also requires understanding of the product. After the design process, it is necessary to establish contact with relevant people and calculate the market demand of the product. It is difficult to put it into production. This requires designing the manufacturing industry. This skill It will take a long time to master.
â‘¡ The expansion of consumables determines the capabilities of the 3D printer. At present, the consumables for 3D printing are very limited. Most of the consumables on the market are gypsum, plastics, cohesive powder particles, photosensitive resin, sand, etc., and the manufacturing precision, complexity, strength and texture cannot meet the high requirements. At present, it is mainly used in the fields of light industrial civilian products such as models and toys, which is still far from "printing" cars and kidneys. And even if the development of consumables is successful, large-scale production and material ratio are all problems. It can be said that consumables play a decisive role in the application and development of 3D printing technology.
â‘¢Attitude towards intellectual property. Open source innovation is an iconic banner of the maker movement. Product design is open to the public. Anyone can modify the design, relying heavily on the wisdom of collective voluntary contributions.
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